The Action Group | London
The Action Group for Palestinians of Syria has issued a new situation assessment examining the future of Palestinian refugees in Syria following the rapid political changes, most notably the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024.
The 14-page report, prepared by the group’s Studies and Research Department, outlines potential scenarios for the situation of Palestinian refugees in Syria during the transitional period and beyond.
The assessment, titled “The Future of Palestinian Refugees in the New Syria,” documents the refugees’ legal and social conditions, from their origins following the 1948 Nakba to the catastrophic repercussions they suffered during the years of the Syrian war, particularly under the control of the former regime and the widespread destruction and displacement that plagued the camps.
The report notes that Palestinians in Syria have long enjoyed near-equal treatment with Syrian citizens under Law No. 260 of 1956, while retaining their right of return and their refugee identity. However, recent years have witnessed a sharp decline in these gains, particularly after the 2021 decision that deprived them of real estate exemptions and treated them as foreigners with regard to property ownership.
The report asserts that the fall of the regime opened the door to new political and legal transformations, most notably the abolition of the Palestine Liberation Army and the release of a number of Palestinian detainees, along with a relative improvement in public freedoms. The report also monitored popular demands for the reconstruction of camps and the improvement of living conditions, while calling for facilitating citizenship procedures without compromising the right of return.
The assessment presents three main scenarios for the future of Palestinians in Syria:
1. Reconstruction and Engagement Scenario
2. Stagnation and Continuity Scenario
3. Deterioration and Displacement Scenario
Warnings and Recommendations
The report warns of a “catastrophic scenario” of the forced settlement of more Palestinian refugees in Syria, as part of potential regional deals, posing a threat to Palestinian identity and the right of return.
In concluding the assessment, the Action group considered that “the most likely scenario in 2025 is the continuation of the status quo,” with the possibility of a partial realization of the positive scenario in the event of real international and Arab support. The negative scenario remains less likely, but remains valid if regional pressures escalate. To view the full report, please click here